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Showing posts from October, 2026

Tesla Robotaxi Ramp in Texas and Florida Tracking To Pass Waymo by End of 2026

Yesterday 4 million, Today 4.1 million Tesla unsupervised robotaxi miles. 1325 estimated unsupervised vehicles in Texas and Florida. $TSLA 700,000 miles per week and miles increasing at 17-20% per week. This is up from 550,000 miles in the week of Oct 12-18. 1204 robotaxi registered in Texas. 6000-8000 miles per week in Miami, Orlando and ... Read more

Google Earnings Yesterday and Amazon Today Both Down

Amazon (AMZN) is down about 6% after hours primarily because it missed Q3 2026 expectations on both revenue and earnings, combined with heavy AI-related spending that has turned free cash flow sharply negative.⁠ Key results (Q3 2026) Revenue: $201.9 billion (up 12% YoY) vs. estimates around $202.2–$202.3 billion — slight miss.⁠CNBC EPS: $1.89 vs. estimates ... Read more

Should You Buy $TSLA or $SPCX for 2027?

Most people think SpaceX is a rocket company that is overvalued at $2 trillion. That view is out of date. SpaceX revenue went from $7.6 billion in Q2 to $14.6 billion in Q3, nearly double in one quarter. Elon now says a $500 billion to $1 trillion revenue run rate is coming by the end ... Read more

Tesla vs Waymo – No Contest

Tesla robotaxi has passed Waymo in driverless miles in Austin. Elon’s reaction was that it was never a real contest. Here are the numbers. Robotaxi Tracker has Tesla at about 438,000 driverless miles a week in Austin, against about 406,000 for Waymo (LIVE). Waymo’s figure is its Q2 2026 weekly average, because Waymo reports about ... Read more

OpenAI Proved Exponential Time Hypothesis is False

OpenAI proved the Exponential Time Hypothesis is false. Hundreds of research papers assumed it was true. Some really hard problems might be solvable much faster than thought. There is no practical speed up yet. It just shows that the assumption and claim that some really hard problems only have exponential solutions is false. This could ... Read more

Walter Koenig Aka Chekov Aka Bester Has Died at 90 From Natural Causes

Walter Koenig (Pavel Chekov) died on Sunday, October 25, 2026, at age 90 of natural causes/old age at his home in North Hollywood, surrounded by his daughter and niece. He was Chekov on Star Trek Original Series and Bester on Babylon 5. With Koenig’s death, only William Shatner (Captain Kirk) and George Takei (Hikaru Sulu) ... Read more

Tesla Cybercab Enables Unboxed Manufacturing and Designed for Optimus for Factory and Operations

Tesla unboxed modular manufacturing is the central breakthrough. It is purpose-built for Cybercab scale and robotaxi economics. ⁠There were major innovations needed to convert cybercab into modules (giant lego) that can be snapped together with ten times faster build times. Factory and Cybercab designed for Optimus Humandoid for Fleet Charging and Other Use Cases and ... Read more

Anthropic IPO, Scaling and Almost Tripled SpaceX Leasing to $3.1 B per Month

Anthropic is in the middle of scaling up compute and infrastructure commitments while its revenue base, especially from agentic and high-intensity enterprise workloads, continues to expand. The combination of recent token-price cuts, reported re-acceleration in October ARR, and an active IPO timeline. Anthropic has filed an S-1 for its IPO. Nov 11 date Anthropic has ... Read more

Ukraine GPS Hack Boards And Other Speculation on Ukraine Starlink

Ukraine uses both commercial/consumer Starlink terminals and the military-oriented Starshield service. The distinction matters. High-speed military use is typically associated with authorized Starshield configurations rather than unmodified commercial plans. Musk publicly stated that Starshield (the military version) is owned and controlled by the US government, and that speed/usage limits are decided by the US military ... Read more

Tesla Unsupervised Robotaxi Over 1000

Tesla has 970 unsupervised robotaxi registered in Texas and the crowdsource count for Florida is at least 38. 1008 unsupervised Tesla robotaxi. Miles and unsupervised vehicles are increasing by 20% per week. Hundreds of cybercabs will be added Dallas and Houston in November.

Using Civilian Products for Military Purposes

Bad people violating the terms of service for commercial passenger planes. Mixing civilian and military uses is not good. IF SpaceX civilian products were used for military offensive purposes then Starlink would become high priority targets for other militaries. Leaked documents from a joint forum and reports from investigative outlets indicate a three-stage approach to ... Read more

SpaceX Starlink Has Never Been a Weapon System But SpaceX Starshield Is

Elon Musk / SpaceX has long restricted Starlink (the commercial/civilian service) from offensive military uses such as guiding drones, consistent with its terms of service, and offers a separate military product (Starshield). This is common for technology companies and especially satellite companies. Just because SpaceX Starlink is the best and most important unjammable communication does ... Read more

Genetically Engineered War Dogs for 7 Foot – 134 Pound Cyborg Dire Wolves

Colossal Biosciences’ Ben Lamm and Andruil’s Palmer Luckey are genetically engineer war dogs for the U.S. military, law enforcement, and other emergency response teams. They announced its emergence from stealth as Warhound, armed with $200 million in funding from investors including In-Q-Tel, Sequoia, and 8VC. The round values the company at $1.2 billion. Warhound will ... Read more

The AI That Doesn’t Just Predict Equipment Failures—It Decides What Happens Next

The most consequential deployment of agentic AI this year isn’t happening in a chatbot or a copilot. It’s happening on the shop floor, where software is beginning to decide, on its own, when a bulldozer comes offline and which technician meets it there. The dollars are small so far and the implications are large. Heavy-equipment ... Read more

Elon’s $1 Trillion Pace: What Has to Go Right

Breaking down Elon’s confidence about 13-23 Gigawatts of data center which will result in about a trillion dollars of revenue in 2027. SpaceX and Elon are superconfident about energy, land and shell. They believe that is assured. Nvidia CEO Jensen and others say funding, land, power and shell are the biggest challenges. SpaceX are building ... Read more

FigureAI Humanoid Bots All Hands

FigureAI is spending $8.1 million last week on data. They are training new models and are learning from humans at scale. They will spend billions on data in the next year or two. Brett says they will need larger compute clusters than the LLM have today. FigureAI has an Nscale partnership. NScale has a deal ... Read more

Nextbigfuture Kalshi Question Review #2

Every day I review 2–3 Kalshi energy, science and tech markets where I think the outcome is clearer than the odds suggest. I’ve forecast on Metaculus and Manifold since 2019: 6,596 predictions, a best-ever #8 of 34,617 Baseline Accuracy rank on Metaculus, and a Brier score of 0.071 vs the Metaculus site’s 0.080 (Oct 2023). ... Read more

Skip navigation Create 9+ Avatar image NEXTBIGFUTURE Kalshi Daily Review #1 | Science- Tech Energy Questions from Top Metaculus Forecaster

Nextbigfuture is starting regular Kalshi market reviews alongside our usual science, technology and business coverage. Each day I will look at two or three Kalshi markets, mostly in the technology, science and energy categories, where a deeper understanding of what it takes for something to happen tells you which way it is likely to resolve. ... Read more

Elon Musk Looking at Giving About $6 Billion to 40 Million American Kids

There are roughly 35–40 million U.S. children in the 2016–2024 birth cohorts (births have averaged ~3.6–3.9 million per year in that period). Michael Dell gave $250 targeted about 25 million of them—primarily those in lower- and middle-income ZIP codes—which the Dells described as covering the large majority of children in that age group. If Elon ... Read more

Understanding Disruptive Dominant Technology Companies

Top technology leader’s like Elon Musk, Palantir Alex Karp, Lonsdale, and a handful of others possess a rare ability to (1) recognize extreme talent outliers (“blue-note” talent that most institutions systematically undervalue), (2) attract and retain them with high-agency environments and extreme missions, and (3) set company objectives that force full utilization of that talent ... Read more

Tesla Roadster Will Be a Production Flying Car -Repeated 8 Second Hover

It will go beyond the Limits of Physics. The multi-mode fan and ground sealing system acts as a downforce generator, pulling air out from beneath the vehicle. This provides enough suction to hold the vehicle upside down, even when stationary. Powered fans and active wings maximize traction and cornering speeds in all conditions, achieving massive downforce at zero speed. A next-gen ... Read more

SpaceX’s Terafab: How Elon Could Scale to TSMC Levels

Can SpaceX’s Terafab reach the scale of TSMC? The answer starts with understanding the sequence: develop the process, prove the production line, then replicate it. The useful question about Terafab is how it gets from a working production line to an enormous chip-manufacturing operation. That requires a sequence. Acquire the expertise. Develop and qualify the ... Read more

Quantum Optimization and AI to Develop Alzheimer’s Drugs

INmune Bio (Nasdaq: INMB) and Quantum Computing Inc. (Nasdaq: QUBT) announced they are working togther to run INmune Bio’s clinical and preclinical data on XPro (XPro1595) through QCi’s Dirac-3S quantum optimization machine, combined with AI and conventional analytics. XPro is INmune Bio’s investigational dominant-negative TNF drug designed to selectively block soluble TNF (a driver of ... Read more

SpaceX’s Space AI Challenge: 5,000 Launches a Year

Five thousand launches a year means nearly fourteen launches every day. At an assumed 200 tonnes of payload per V4 Starship flight, that would deliver one million tonnes to orbit annually. Under the satellite power-density assumptions in my latest video, that supports 50–100 gigawatts of new orbital AI capacity per year. Those numbers explain why ... Read more

Math Fields Medal Winner from 2022 Describes the Shock of AI Solving Math

Top mathematician says the shock is immense. I am paralyzed. Not a single one of the major open problems of my career was left untouched by the announcement. On October 6 OpenAI released hundreds of papers addressing at least 372 other long-standing open problems across mathematics. The scale and nonchalance of the drop produced the ... Read more

SpaceX Files for Approval for Hundreds of Launches at Texas Facility

SpaceX has filed to increase from its already approved 25 Starship launches per year to 100 annual launches from Texas. This will then increase to 456 launches. There are double the number of landings (one for booster and one for upper stage). In Florida, SpaceX has environmental and operational authorizations for up to 44 Starship-Super ... Read more

Crowd Count Confirming 300+ Cybercabs in Austin

Over 60 additional Cybercabs counts have been added in Austin. This is confirming that Tesla did add over Cybercabs in Austin. ARK Prediction – Cybercab probably reaches over 10% of Austin ridehail (Uber, Lyft and Waymo) vehicles before people in Austin wake up to what’s happening. Cybercab gets to 70% of Austin ridehail vehicles before ... Read more

Slow Crowd Count of 300 Cybercabs in Austin and 500 Ready to Add in Houston and Dallas

Tesla added 300 Cybercabs into Austin. The robotaxitracker which only has about 1-2% of rides recorded. 400 logged rides over the last week has detected about 50 Cybercabs. The count went from 100 to 150. Tesla said they added and have over 300 Cybercabs in Austin. There are 300 Cybercabs ready to be released in ... Read more

SpaceX to $1,000 in 2027? Follow the AI Factory Math

One new AI data center per month represents $25 billion in annual revenue capacity each month and then it will triple to $75 billion per month with Rubin chips in 2027. Completing facilities at a monthly pace would make construction speed a major driver of SpaceX’s valuation. That is the core of the $1,000-per-share SpaceX ... Read more

Elon Musk: What Comes Next for Humanity

A conversation at X Takeover about AI abundance and existential risk, the next chapter of space exploration, and what it takes to turn extraordinary ideas into reality. Engine computer software for one of the engines was the problem for the Starship Flight 14. Heat shield and engines are all looking robust. They need to get ... Read more

Tesla Has Over 300 Cybercabs in Austin and ~500 Robotaxi in Austin

Tesla likely has over or near 500 vehicles in Austin. Tesla says 300+ cybercab in Austin. robotaxitracker.com crowdsourced says 105 cybercab and 170 Model Y. This would mean 300 cybercab and 170+ Model Y in Austin. The total unsupervised in Texas and Florida should be 610+. The Texas registered amount of 739 and there are ... Read more

Elon’s CRAZY plan for SpaceX to Dwarf the World Economy. Breaking it down

Elon Said this will sound super crazy, but I see a path to SpaceX being worth orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy The Actual SpaceX plans from mass-produced AI data centers on Earth and reusable Starships to lunar factories, magnetic mass drivers and vast networks of orbital AI satellites. The numbers reveal ... Read more

Varda Space Industries Raises $250 Million at a $1.6 Billion Valuation

Varda hd a $250M Series D raise, bringing the total amount of capital raised to $598 million with a $1.6Billion valuation. Varda is a microgravity-enabled life sciences company that processes materials in orbit and returns them to Earth. This funding will help them build more vehicles, grow pharmaceutical partnerships, and advance toward the first medicine ... Read more

OpenAI Makes 81% of Top Math Discoveries of the Last Three Years – Released in one Day

GPT 6 Pro and Fable 5.1 to rank all math discoveries in the last three years and 81% of them were released yesterday in the OpenAI Math solutions release. 🔵 for Human discovered 🔴 for AI discovered (before October 6th) 🟢 for AI discovered from OpenAI/math repo i asked GPT 6 Pro and Fable 5.1 ... Read more

SpaceX’s AI Build Speed Will Make Wall Street Wrong Again

The biggest near-term change in SpaceX’s business is happening already and will be obvious over the next few months. They are completing some of the largest AI data centers on Earth. In my latest video, I examine the Macrohard, Macroharder and Minihard buildout—and why a construction cycle measured in months could make conventional revenue forecasts ... Read more

Canada Proposing Large Hydro Complex for 2037 to Add Half China Three Gorges Dam

Canada’s largest Canadian energy project now is the Churchill Falls–Gull Island package in Labrador. It is nearly $70 billion and the largest clean-energy investment in North American history. This will be about 14,000 MW of clean power across the package. It is the existing Churchill Falls plus new hydro and wind nearly tripling Churchill Falls. ... Read more

Four Google TPUs Launched to Learn How to Improve and Scale AI in Space

October 1st, 2026 Google in partnership with planet labs launched a prototype satellite carrying four TPUs into orbit on SpaceX’s Transporter-18 rideshare mission. This launch is the first step of Project Suncatcher. Google is working long-term to one day host scalable machine learning infrastructure in space. Over the coming weeks, in-orbit data will be gathered ... Read more

Canada AI Data Center Projects and Power for AI

Alberta is the main focus for near-term natural-gas power dedicated to AI and high-performance computing data centers, under a bring-your-own-generation model. Most large projects are still proposed or in permitting; only a few have final investment decisions, construction contracts, or offtake agreements. Alberta’s marketable gas supply is about 11.5 Bcf/d (2025) and still in surplus ... Read more

Each SpaceX 250 Kilowatt Starlink AI Satellite Is More Power Than the Space Station

Elon’s 250 kW Starlink satellites will bring multi-gigabit satellite internet and 5G satellite cellphone everywhere even high density cities. 250 kilowatts per satellite, 10 terabits per second in both directions, and a path to more than 100 terabits per second. I detailed the 250 kilowatt per Starlink satellite as beating the Space Station in my ... Read more