The IR-compiled delivery consensus is 406,024. This should get beaten by 60,000-80,000 cars. Tesla vehicle shipments – Part 2 Kalshi also moving much higher. My number is 490k plus for shipments, with an absolute minimum of 475k. Kalshi (directional "Above X" markets) Above 460k: ~65% (up sharply, e.g., +24 points in recent data).kalshi.com Above 470k: ... Read more