Skip to main content

Posts

Forecasting AI, Harnesses, Applications, and Tools in 3–6 Months

November 2026 and Feb 2027 projections by extrapolating the recent doubling rates. Doubling times are taking ~4 months for the amount of human work time AI can perform. Another ~1.5–2× (3 months) to ~2–4× (6 months) increase in effective time horizon is a reasonable baseline expectation if trends hold. This points toward reliable multi-day (or ... Read more
Recent posts

Updated SpaceX Catalysts

SpaceXAI Grok 4.6 is a major release that is by the frontier and competitive with OpenaI GPT 5.6. This is one of the major points on my list of SpaceX Stock Catalysts. Some of the items like Grok 4.7 are adjusted to the new later schedule. SpaceXAI Grok 4.6 is on the terminal bench leaderboard ... Read more

Elon Claims SpaceXAI Grok 4.7 Will Surpass All Current Models

Cognition Labs reports Grok 4.6 (available in Devin) is a significant improvement over 4.5, surpassing GPT-5.6 Sol while trailing only Opus 5 and Fable 5. Grok 4.6 (the 1.5T-parameter model with improved supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning) launched and is competitive at the frontier. Grok 4.7 is the larger ~2.1T-parameter model. Initial training is complete. ... Read more

Microsoft Will Lease 3+ Gigawatts of AI Data Center from SpaceX in 2027

Microsoft has already signed 10GW of AI data center contracts year-to-date for over $300B of total contract value, but those contribute to late-2027 and 2028 capacity, leaving a near-term gap to fill. Semianalysis has calculated the tokenomics of OpenAI and Anthropic at $100 billion per year per gigawatt. Microsoft can also monetize at $100 Billion ... Read more

What Contracted Power Actually Means and What is Available for New Contracts

It is a procurement metric, not a sales metric. There are three separate stacks and the industry deliberately blurs them. CoreWeave’s 3.5 GW contracted power and its $99.4B backlog are two different books. How tightly is the second mapped onto the first. They are very tightly, by design, because layer 3 is the collateral for ... Read more

Semianalysis Agrees With NextBigfuture $300B Per Year for SpaceX by End of 2027

Semianalysis agrees with my analysis of SpaceX getting up to $300 Billion per year by end of 2027. Spot prices are higher. The AI lease rates make sense. Coreweave and Nebius are spreading out fixed premium GPUs annual prices but requiring 5 year lockin. 5 years for $100 billion but not available during the next ... Read more

Terafab Rendered in a Video

Terafab will close the gap between today’s chip production and the future’s demand — a future among the stars. Terafab Texas will be the largest and most valuable building on Earth by far. And it will be stunningly beautiful. pic.twitter.com/4NweOqTL7y — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 6, 2026 Sequoia's @shaunmmaguire explains why @elonmusk's Terafab is massively ... Read more