Everything that matters for Tesla should scale in Q2 2027. AI5 chips in April 2027 integrating with Optimus. Customer cars start joining the Robotaxi fleet in Q2 2027 Optimus targets to 20,000 a week (a 1 million/year run rate) by Q4 but should be substantial in Q2 2027. Factories scaled for 5 million cars a ... Read more
Every day I review 2–3 Kalshi energy, science and tech markets where I think the outcome is clearer than the odds suggest. I’ve forecast on Metaculus and Manifold since 2019: 6,596 predictions, a best-ever #8 of 34,617 Baseline Accuracy rank on Metaculus, and a Brier score of 0.071 vs the Metaculus site’s 0.080 (Oct 2023). ... Read more