Here are my SpaceX AI related events / Milestones and Catalysts. I think the key milestones for major revenue impact other than Starship proving full reusability and deploying V3 satellites are the AI achievements. I think the AI monetization is more impactful in 2026 and 2027. If Cursor Composer and Grok 5.X are the top ... Read more
The AI2027 superAI scenarios are tracking a bit slower but we are still heading quickly to SuperAI. Risk milestones are arriving ahead of the capability milestones that were supposed to produce them. There is a AI2027 tracking website and they observed capability predictions were running a bit behind but the SWE Verified benchmark caught up. ... Read more
When AI compresses the information edge and hands everyone roughly the same high-quality financial insights, pure “knowing more” stops being a reliable source of alpha. The remaining edge shifts to the parts that are still scarce. Judgment under uncertainty, creative synthesis, structural positioning, behavioral discipline, and the ability to act when others cannot. The Ken ... Read more
Claude Opus 4.6 can work for twelve hours. It can work reliably for seventy minutes. Mythos and likely Fable 5 can work for 16 hours at 50% correctness and 2-3 hours at 80%. Both numbers describe the same model doing the same kind of work, measured by the same organization. The gap between them is ... Read more
Sebastien Bubeck of OpenAI says “yes, nonsofic groups exist”—as an example of “many new beautiful results” from Astra, next major OpenAI model. OpenAI published a page and PDF detailing ten advances across pure math and theoretical computer science. The arguments were generated by an internal version of Astra (total compute cost ~$2,000 at their Sol ... Read more
What becomes free and abundant stops being where the money is and becomes less important. Tap water is essential and it is not an industry. If Jason is right that Deepseek and Other Open Source AI are indistinguishable for 95% of queries. The consequence is not that corporations buy hardware and run open source. 95% ... Read more