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Nextbigfuture Kalshi Question Review #2

Every day I review 2–3 Kalshi energy, science and tech markets where I think the outcome is clearer than the odds suggest. I’ve forecast on Metaculus and Manifold since 2019: 6,596 predictions, a best-ever #8 of 34,617 Baseline Accuracy rank on Metaculus, and a Brier score of 0.071 vs the Metaculus site’s 0.080 (Oct 2023). ... Read more
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Skip navigation Create 9+ Avatar image NEXTBIGFUTURE Kalshi Daily Review #1 | Science- Tech Energy Questions from Top Metaculus Forecaster

Nextbigfuture is starting regular Kalshi market reviews alongside our usual science, technology and business coverage. Each day I will look at two or three Kalshi markets, mostly in the technology, science and energy categories, where a deeper understanding of what it takes for something to happen tells you which way it is likely to resolve. ... Read more

Elon Musk Looking at Giving About $6 Billion to 40 Million American Kids

There are roughly 35–40 million U.S. children in the 2016–2024 birth cohorts (births have averaged ~3.6–3.9 million per year in that period). Michael Dell gave $250 targeted about 25 million of them—primarily those in lower- and middle-income ZIP codes—which the Dells described as covering the large majority of children in that age group. If Elon ... Read more

Understanding Disruptive Dominant Technology Companies

Top technology leader’s like Elon Musk, Palantir Alex Karp, Lonsdale, and a handful of others possess a rare ability to (1) recognize extreme talent outliers (“blue-note” talent that most institutions systematically undervalue), (2) attract and retain them with high-agency environments and extreme missions, and (3) set company objectives that force full utilization of that talent ... Read more