Future Stories

Super Heavy on the launch pad at Starbase ahead of Starship’s eighth flight test on Monday March 3, 2025. Now targeting to launch Starship's eighth flight test as soon as Monday, March 3 → https://t.co/alyJTRtOIP https://t.co/nVu5uHMGwi — SpaceX (@SpaceX) February 27, 2025 The eighth flight test of Starship is preparing to launch as soon as ... Read more

The Verizon communication system to air traffic control is breaking down very rapidly. The FAA assessment is single digit months to catastrophic failure, putting air traveler safety at serious risk. The Starlink terminals are being sent at NO COST to the taxpayer on an emergency basis to restore air traffic control connectivity. The situation is ... Read more

Mo Gawdat, Peter Diamandis, and Salim Ismail discuss AGI, how to adapt to an AI-driven world, the future of jobs, and more. They discuss the different kinds of intelligence. The talk about AI being broadly superior in writing and math. The LLMs are rapidly knocking off other categories. Mo Gawdat is a renowned author, entrepreneur, ... Read more

Mark Chen is the chief research officer at OpenAI and he talks about the debut of GPT 4.5 in a video below. The OpenAI newest largest model is going live today. The full OpenAI GPT 4.5 paper is here. Also, OpenAI GPT 4.5 is expensive. Key Innovations – Scale Improvements Improves on GPT-4’s computational efficiency ... Read more

Nvidia once again beat the quarterly earnings estimate and increased guidance more than expectations. Revenue: $39.3B vs. $38.1B est (+78% YoY) • EPS: $0.89 vs. $0.85 est • Data Center: $35.6B vs $33.5B est (+93% YoY) Guidance • Revenue: $43.0B vs. $42.1B est 🔥 EPS: $0.89 (Beat +6%) Key Highlights: 📈 Data Center Revenue: $35.6B ... Read more

OpenAI 4.5 research preview is available to some pro users. There are reports that GPT4.5 has been leaked. It is likely that GPT 4.5 could be widely available by Thursday or Friday. Reports indicate that GPT-4.5 is on the verge of release, with evidence emerging from the ChatGPT Android app, where datamining uncovered references to ... Read more

Tesla’s patent 2025/015194 A1,(“Cathode Powder and Processes),” describes a method for producing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials for the Tesla 4680 batteries. It has simplified mixing, granulation, and heating steps. This patent, spanning over 100 pages, was published recently. @Tesla's LFP manufacturing patent, WO2025015194A1 is just published. 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/3PoF1blnfa — SETI Park (@seti_park) January ... Read more

Tesla has published a new 100 page patent that describes an innovation for making cathode powder with wet and dry processes. Drew Banglino, x-Tesla executive, and Jordan Giesege, The Limiting Factor, tell us how this will be a path to make the lowest cost iron LFP batteries than untariffed LFP from China. The new technology ... Read more

Tesla FSD (Full Self Driving version 13.2.6) has been localized to China using only internet driving videos of driving in China. Previously it was believed that Tesla would need to be able to send a lot of driving videos collected in China to retrain the base model. This was not needed. There was no regulatory ... Read more

In 2015, Waitbutwhy.com had some articles and diagrams explaining how the artificial intelligence revolution of a technological singularity would play out. The diagram above shows how there would be a series of improvement rates that would get steeper and steeper and faster and faster. My article from yesterday explains how 12-20 years ago we shifted ... Read more

Reviewing my analysis from two weeks ago about Tesla, I wanted to emphasize key points and add more context. I think 2025 is playing out like what happened in 2020. In 2020, the stock ran up (post-split prices) from about $15 in late 2019 to $60 by Feb 21, 2020 and then dropped to about ... Read more

Tesla is preparing to roll out its FSD feature in China and will provide a batch of software updates to Chinese EV owners. Launching Tesla FSD (Supervised) in China would add another 3 million potential customers. At a 35% take rate of $99 per month, it would be about $1 billion in profit per year. ... Read more

Anthropic releases a Claude 3.7 Sonnet reasoning model and Claude Code an agentic model. These are their most intelligent models to date. Claude 3.7 Sonnet is a hybrid reasoning model, producing near-instant responses or extended, step-by-step thinking. Claude 3.7 was trained on real-world coding examples. Claude 3.5 has already been the best for real world ... Read more

An Epoch AI article identifies four primary barriers to scaling AI training: power, chip manufacturing, data, and latency. Below, we summarize the known research, innovations, and approaches that could mitigate or overcome these barriers, as well as discuss how AI scaling could continue beyond 2030 to 2040. 1. Power Constraints Training large AI models requires ... Read more

What happens if more domains of knowledge have superhuman performance from AI? The Elo (chess ranking estimate) of the best chess programs is about 3700 which is about 900 points beyond the 2881 maximum of Magnus Carlsen. This means Magnus might be able to get a draw in one out of 100 or 1000 games ... Read more

Elon Musk has posted that we are on the event horizon of the Singularity. I have been closely observing the buildout of XAI AI data centers and here is why we will get 40-60 years or more of progress in about 6 years. People are used to Moore’s Law which has been around . This ... Read more

I know that AI experts like Epoch AI have been projecting a continuation of the 5X per year increase in AI training compute but Grok 2 was released in August 2024 and 6 months later Grok 3 was released with 15X increase in training compute. This shows that the 5X per year rate has been ... Read more

xAI has taken tripled the growth rate of AI data center compute. It has gone from 5X each year to over 15X each year. It is still continuing with a 4X in power and 11X in compute in the first 6 months of this year. This will 11X the compute used for the Grok 3 ... Read more

More video of the newly built Tesla cars in Fremont (1500-2000 per day, day and night) driving without human drivers from the factory to the loading dock about 1.2 miles away. There are semi trucks, forklifts and human workers walking along and other cars.

Tomorrow, I will have two new videos that will describe how xAI will use a data center with 80 times the training compute used for GROK 3 in 2026. I have a far more refined, detailed analysis of the AI singularity and intelligence explosion as it is happening. The AI is what we are witnessing ... Read more

Solar Turbines, a subsidiary of Caterpillar, is often mistaken for a solar energy company due to its name, but it primarily manufactures industrial gas turbines for power generation, marine propulsion, and natural gas/oil processing. Founded in 1927 as Prudden-San Diego Airplane Company, it was acquired by Caterpillar in 1981 and now serves global markets with ... Read more

xAI, through its affiliate CTC Property LLC, filed an operating permit application with the Shelby County Department of Health in January 2025. The permit for xAI to install turbines, specifically fifteen Solar-SMT-130 models, will let them double the GPUs to 400,000. 15 of the 16 MWe turbines is 240 MW. This would double the power ... Read more

Sanctuary AI has revealed better hand sensors for their humanoid robots. It is a new generation of tactile sensor technology optimized to improve dexterous manipulation. Sanctuary is believes great robot hands are performing all of the high value tasks in the workplace when combined with AI and sensors. This requires a delicate—but durable—sense of touch ... Read more

Russia and Ukraine punched above their weight in the fertilizer market, especially for nitrogen and potash, because of their resource advantages and production scale. Russia was the world’s top exporter of nitrogen fertilizers (like urea and ammonia), holding about 16% of global urea exports and 23% of ammonia exports before 2022 disruptions. Together with Belarus, ... Read more

Microsoft team behind the recent breakthrough in physics and quantum computing demonstrated by the new Majorana 1 chip, engineered from an entirely new material that has the potential to scale to millions of qubits on a single chip. Microsoft today introduced Majorana 1, the world’s first quantum chip powered by a new Topological Core architecture ... Read more

If DOGE fails to cut US deficit then what is potential timeline for a U.S. economic collapse similar to the Soviet Union’s (USSR), given a current national debt of $37 trillion increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days. US debt was $34 trillion in January 2024. Would this lead to hyperinflation, an upward spiral in ... Read more

Baidu revealed progress of their subsidiary, Apollo Go on their earnings call. The number of paid robotaxi rides 1.1 million in 4Q 2024 which is up +36% Year over year The cumulative robotaxi rides now 9 million. This about 25-50% of the level of Waymo. They have some 100% fully driverless (no remote operator) operations. ... Read more

A SpaceX Falcon 9 landed on a new drone ship in the Bahamas. The mission also successfully deployed more version 2 mini satellites. SpaceX’s decision to land Falcon 9 boosters in the Bahamas after launching from NASA’s Pad 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station introduces a new approach to booster recovery, potentially improving efficiency ... Read more

February 13 2025, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) announced its secretive Aerospace Projects Office (APO) is developing a large hypersonic bomber prototype as part of the Next Generation Responsive Strike (NextRS) program. The NextRS hypersonic bomber project aims to create a reusable, large-scale platform capable of multi-mission strike and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance ... Read more

Expanding the power capacity at xAI’s Colossus supercomputer in Memphis from 250 megawatts (MW) to 1.2 gigawatts (GW)—a nearly fivefold increase—is a complex challenge involving infrastructure, logistics, and regulatory hurdles. The Memphis XAI site hasexisting resources (like natural gas availability at the old Electrolux factory). This assumes typical industry constraints. Current State and Past Expansion ... Read more

IT modernization could slash 388,000 to 1 million admin, support, and non-combat roles. Given the mix (~1.04-1.17 million active-duty, 614,000-695,000 reserve, 778,000-867,000 civilian in non-combat roles), a weighted average cost of $90,000 per person is reasonable for non-combat personnel (balancing higher active-duty costs with lower reserve/civilian costs). For 388,000 to 1 million roles cut: Low-End ... Read more

xAI Grok 3 is the number one ranked AI across categories. xAI is still performing reinforcement learning and other continuing training to improve these models. They are expanding their data center from 250 megawatts of 200,000 GPUs to 1.2 gigawatts and 1 million GPUs. This will be about 20 times the compute of the 200k ... Read more

xAI has released Grok 3 which is the first model to break a 1400 LLM Arena score. This makes Grok 3 the top AI model. Grok 3 is still undergoing reinforcement learning to make it even smarter. This will help Grok 3 to surpass OpenAI O3. The data center that xAI has built has been ... Read more

xAI revealing Grok 3. Elon Musk claims it will be the smartest AI in the world. https://t.co/HTK4u2aYRu — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 18, 2025 X broadcast of the Grok 3 reveal and demo.

Camouflaged Model Y at Giga Texas this morning … here are some still images from the air … what do you think this is? Interesting development! pic.twitter.com/9ZxQR1eV2M — Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) February 12, 2025

The Ukraine-Russia war is perfecting the killing of anyone and anything with 6 miles or so of the front. This has been an expansion of no man’s land by 100 times since world war 1. US military planners are talking about massive layers of combat. They are basically saying that the first layers tens of ... Read more

The US, China and Japan are working on research and development in gallium oxide crystal growth and productionizing gallium oxide chips. The Gallium oxide chips can have a voltage resistance value 3 times higher and power consumption reduced by 60%. The power semiconductor market, sometimes called power electronics, is a large and important business that ... Read more

xAI Grok 3 release with live demo on Monday night at 8pm PT. Elon has said xAI Grok 3 will lead on all of the AI metrics when it is released. Grok 3 has been trained on over 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips. Grok 4 will be released later this year. The rapid pace of xAI ... Read more

China’s DeepSeek has made innovations in the cost of AI and innovations like mixture of experts (MoE) and fine-grain expert segmentation which significantly improve efficiency in large language models. The DeepSeek model activates only about 37 billion parameters out of its total 600+ billion parameters during inference, compared to models like Llama that activate all ... Read more

There is massive cost cutting with DOGE. 200,000 jobs eliminated by firing all probationary employees. 77,000 taking the 8 month offer to quit. Soon $100 billion in savings out of $500 billion in known waste. Proposal to halve the US, Russian and China military budgets would save $440 billion for the USA. USA would still ... Read more

In 2023, the Climate Policy Initiative’s Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2023 report, annual climate finance flows surpassed USD 1 trillion for the first time in 2021, reaching almost USD 1.3 trillion in 2021/2022. This represents a doubling compared to 2019/2020 levels. Paris Accords came into effect in 2016. U.S. CO2 emissions fell 14% between ... Read more

In 2025, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg has become the second richest in the world. Jeff Bezos has rarely not been richest or second richest in the world for the past 8 years. Meta announced its move into AI-powered humanoid robots. There is excitement around AI and robotics for Meta. Meta’s stock has been on a ... Read more

As I have posted, I am a top 8 predictor on Metaculus out of 34617 people according to Metaculus for baseline accuracy. I was asked by a commenter what my public prediction is for will humans land on Mars by 2030? Yes, I believe humans will land on Mars by 2030. I am superconfident SpaceX ... Read more

Aubrey de Grey had a large mouse study of combinations of antiaging treatments. They did show that combination treatments did have additive benefits. Combination treatments worked together to improve the lengthening of lifespans. Rapamycin is the strongest main confirmed antiaging treatment. His group is setting up a second experiment with new combination treatments but will ... Read more

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) collided with the bulk carrier Besiktas-M off the coast of Egypt yesterday. The Pentagon reports that the collision did not endanger the Harry S. Truman. There have been previous rare collisions with a Navy ship and another ship. It was the result of gross incompetence ... Read more

Elon announced a deal for a Boring Company Dubai Loop at the end of video presentation interview. I think it has something to do with countries wanting to get on Elon’s good side. Las Vegas is building out a 68 mile Boring company system with 104 stations connecting everything along the Vegas strip to the ... Read more

SpaceX Starship had by far the longest static fire ever of about 1 minute. SpaceX upgraded the flame trench and other systems. This enables longer static fires. They can now test more conditions and stress systems in different ways. The extended firing tested new hardware and cycled the six Raptor engines through multiple thrust levels ... Read more

UBER only made $2.8 billion in operating profit in 2024. They had some tax revaluation net income but those were one off financial effects. The $2.8 billion was less than 1.5% of gross revenue and 7% of UBER share of revenue. This means that UBER is far more vulnerable to any price competition. Tesla robotaxi ... Read more

The ULA (United Launch Alliance) rocket is not fully authorized for the US Space Force. The first Vulcan launch by about four years before ULA successfully completed the rocket’s first demonstration flight in January 2024. ULA expected to be ready to launch the first military mission on the Vulcan rocket in mid-2024, plus two more ... Read more

Tesla in 2019 and 2020 had a runup from less than $15 per share in 2019 to over $60 by February 21 2020 and then it dropped in half to less than $28. Tesla was in the process of getting Tesla Model Y up to mass production and then get Tesla Shanghai into ramped production. ... Read more

Federal Government employment records are all in paper records stored in a former limestone mine that looks like the warehouse at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark. The Limestone mine vital records storage was built in the 1950s and the manual procedures have not been updated for about 70 years. The Iron Mountain’s ... Read more

At an announcement for a new federal agency tasked with declassifying information for the American public on multiple assassinations and also unidentified flying objects, Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, heads the New Declassification Task Force, says that her review of the new material supports two shooters in the JFK assassination in Dallas in 1963. We ... Read more

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) V14 will use auto-regressive transformers. This technology will help FSD predict the plans and paths of the surrounding environment, allowing it to more accurately anticipate the actions of other vehicles, pedestrians, etc., and make human-like decisions. FSD V14 will also increase the model size and context size, and will enable more ... Read more

Austin, Texas, 11th February 2025, CyberNewsWire

Luxembourg, Luxembourg, 11th February 2025, CyberNewsWire

The $97.4 billion bid by Elon Musk and his consortium to acquire OpenAI is likely a move to delay and complicate OpenAI’s growth and conversion to for profit. Sam and his board won’t take the offer but they will have to explain why in court. Other owners in the nonprofit will want a piece of ... Read more

All 1500+ new Tesla cars drive from the Fremony factory to the loading docks every day. This is about 2000 miles per day of driving without a human driver. They could also drive from truck offloads to shipping lots in Austin, Shanghai, Berlin. It will move up from 2000 miles per day to 6000-20000 miles ... Read more

SpaceX performed a static fire of Booster 15 for the eighth flight of Starship. SpaceX has applied for a communications license from the FCC for Starship Flight 8 with a start date of February 24, 2025. Starship Flight 8 is expected to launch no earlier than February 24, 2025. However, the exact launch date could ... Read more

The Department of Government Efficiency has the objective of cutting government spending by $2 trillion per year out of $6.8 trillion in spending. This is nearly as large as the $2.43 trillion/year in individual income tax. Tariffs were $80B/year last year. Increasing it to $500B combined with cuts in waste, fraud and adding tariffs would ... Read more

Cursor has no marketing and a team of fewer than 20 people. Cursor is a Software as a Service (SaaS) for an AI code editor. AI-Powered Coding: Cursor offers an AI-enhanced code editor that integrates with Visual Studio Code (VS Code), providing real-time AI assistance for coding tasks. This includes writing, editing, and automating code, ... Read more

Amazon AWS will invest $100 billion in 2025 to take the lead in AI spending. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said recent efficiency innovations by China’s DeepSeek should increase overall customer spending on generative AI, rather than reduce it. $320 billion in spending from the top four companies in 2025 CapEx projections: – Amazon – $100 ... Read more

Boeing is preparing for the cancellation of the Space Launch System rocket. Some are arguing for the cancellation after the Artemis 2 and Artemis 3 flight. However, there are months of fixes needed for the human rated Orion. The heat shield is not safe. Rushing to get off two more flights will likely cost over ... Read more

Astronomers looked more closely at one of seven stars that looked like possible Dyson sphere candidates from earlier observations. They used high-resolution e-MERLIN and EVN (e-VLBI) observations of a radio source associated with Dyson Sphere candidate G, identified as part of Project Hephaistos. The radio source, VLASS J233532.86−000424.9, is resolved into three compact components and ... Read more

Google had fallen far behind in the AI race but has gotten into the lead with Gemini 2.0. Google Gemini 2 is powerful, fast and very low cost. Theo reviewed it and he has made his own chat app. Google has made updated Gemini 2.0 Flash generally available via the Gemini API in Google AI ... Read more

Tesla is starting production at its new 80 GWh/year Shanghai Megapack factory on Feb 11, 2025 and they have started construction on a third megapack factory that will likely be 80-160 GWh/year. There were 200 GWH/year of fixed energy storage installed in 2024 and Tesla installed bout 30 GWH of it. Tesla will install about ... Read more

Advertisers all returned to X (previously Twitter) a few months before the November 2024 election. 2024 X profits were $1.25 billion which was about double the highest adjusted EBITDA of Twitter which was in 2021 at $682 million. This means just holding onto the 2024 advertisers would give X a full year of around $2.5 ... Read more

Tesla is now officially hiring engineers to prepare for mass production of Optimus (Tesla Bot) in their Fremont factory in California. Tesla plans to produce 5,000 to 10,000 Teslabots in 2025 and 50,000 to 100,000 in 2026 and 500,000 to 1 million in 2027.

China has the second largest sovereign wealth fund in the world at $1.3 trillion and it has over $16 trillion in debt. Singapore also has both a large national debt and a large sovereign wealth fund. The Federal Reserve holds about $4.4 trillion in T-bills and bonds. The US already holds a lot of financial ... Read more

In 2014, the US Navy installed its first prototype SSL (solid state laser) capable of countering surface craft and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) on a Navy ship. The Navy since then has been developing and installing additional SSL prototypes with improved capability for countering surface craft and UAVs. Higher-power SSLs being developed by the Navy ... Read more

The US is creating a national sovereign wealth fund. There have been several states that have made wealth funds. Alaska has a $64 billion fund. The U.S. sovereign wealth fund could approach or exceed $2 trillion. The largest sovereign wealth funds is $1.7 trillion. At the time of the executive order’s signing, no specific initial ... Read more

Concentrated Solar Energy plant would generate thousands of degrees of heat and caused the death of 6000 birds per year. The plant uses 5 square miles (12.9 square kilometres) of giant mirrors that focus beams of concentrated sunlight onto three different 40-storey-tall towers. The plant sits along the Pacific Flyway – a popular migratory route ... Read more

Austin, TX, USA, 4th February 2025, CyberNewsWire

Canada is implementing a $1.3 billion border plan — reinforcing the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American partners, and increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border. In addition, Canada is making new commitments to appoint ... Read more

The US Navy released a new photo of USS Preble (DDG-88) firing her HELIOS laser weapon. It is a 60 kilowatt combat laser. badass pic.twitter.com/i3thc0dH6H — CommonSenseOnMars (@CommonSenseMars) February 3, 2025 The USS Preble is the first U.S. Navy vessel equipped with HELIOS, a 60-kilowatt-class directed energy laser weapon developed by Lockheed Martin. It is ... Read more

SpaceX Starship V3 will be 20-30 meters taller with a proposed height of 140 to 150 meters. This increase in height is aimed at accommodating more propellant, thus increasing payload capacity. SpaceX could upgrade to Starship version 3 by November, 2025. It is projected that Starship V3 could have a payload capacity of approximately 200 ... Read more

There are now 25% tariffs on everything made in Canada and Mexico and this could increase to 50%. Trump promised to double the tariffs if Canada and Mexico retaliated and they did. There was a 2018 study of proposed tariffs in the 10-25% range. However, cars are now 34% more expensive than in 2018. The ... Read more

The distilled versions of Deepseek are not as good as the full model. They are vastly inferior and other models out perform them handily. Running the full model, with a 16K or greater context window, is possible for about $2000 at about 4 tokens per second. This uses an Machine Specs AMD EPYC 7702 512GB ... Read more

What if Tesla succeeds with robotaxi in June 2025 in Austin? Will there be a buying frenzy for Tesla Robotaxi?